All Must Have Prizes

Following my earlier piece on the limitations of a statistical approach to football analysis, the sight of Bolton at the top of the shooting accuracy chart caused me to set myself a little challenge: to see if each team in the Premiership could in fact claim to be ‘number one’ at something.

Fig. 1 - the Anfield Cat

Now, I’ve rigged numbers before (things like fig. 1 don’t just happen), considered it on several other occasions (giving up plotting the relative positions of Didier Drogba’s head and ground level in Chelsea v Barcelona because sitting down at half-time was too difficult to force on the x- axis), and screwed up a couple of times (the form guide that suggested certain teams were averaging more than three points a game early on in the season) but I can assure you that all these numbers are echt, coming as they do from the lovely people at  http://www.football-data.co.uk/ (thus, certain stats such as shots / on target may differ from other data sources, and I don’t have possession / pass completion stats).

Not Opta, I’m afraid. I can’t afford Opta. If anyone is interested, my birthday is in January...

The rules – each achievement must be positive (i.e. no ‘best at letting in goals’), so yes, I was most worried about finding something for Villa; and the Occam’s Razor approach applies, start with the obvious stuff and only apply filters where necessary.

Notes: 

• ‘accuracy’ is the percentage of shots deemed on target; ‘efficiency’ the percentage of shots on target resulting in a goal; ‘conversion rate’ is the percentage of total shots resulting in a goal; ‘save rate’ is the percentage of shots on target against that did not result in a goal. 
• Filters applied include home / away record, 2011 / 2012 split, and, when I got desperate, results by month and multiple combinations of the above.

Here are the results – well done everybody.

1. Manchester City – most goals (93), most shots (666), most shots on target (399), most shots and shots on target in a single game (35, 24 – v QPR), fewest goals conceded (20), most home points (55), most home wins (18) and at that point I stopped writing down any more things. There were lots of others.
2. Manchester United – most first half goals (40), most away points (42), most away wins (13) and again, stopped writing them down, and again, there were lots of others.
3. Arsenal – highest 2011 away accuracy (64.18%), most goals in February (14)
4. Tottenham Hotspur – highest number of corners in a game (19 v Villa – joint with MCFC v QPR and NUFC v SAFC), most points in September (9) November (9) January (10) and May (7), most goals in November (8) January (9) and May (7)
5. Newcastle United – highest 2012 away efficiency (28.89%)
6. Chelsea – most shots in 2011 (314)
7. Everton – highest 2012 home save rate (92.31%) and efficiency (27.54%), most goals in April (14)
8. Liverpool – most corners (308)
9. Fulham – the only team with no red cards this season. Good lads, they are. Also, recovered two half time deficits to win, so highest turnarounds.
10. West Bromwich Albion – most away goals in February (6)
11. Swansea – fewest fouls (309) and yellow cards (40), highest home save rate (87%)
12. Norwich – most away goals in January (4 – joint with Liverpool and Sunderland)
13. Sunderland – highest 2012 efficiency (24.47%) and save rate (86.36%)
14. Stoke – highest home efficiency (26.6%)
15. Wigan Athletic – most points in April (9)
16. Aston Villa – I swear I am not doing this on purpose but I genuinely can’t find a thing...
17. Queens Park Rangers – highest percentage of points at home (70.27% - rising to 95% in 2012)
18. Bolton – highest home accuracy (64.96%) and 2011 accuracy (67.45%)
19. Blackburn Rovers – highest 2011 away efficiency (31.37%) and conversion rate (18.6%)
20. Wolverhampton Wanderers – highest percentage of points away in 2012 (87.5%)

This of course proves absolutely nothing, but it was interesting to see how difficult it was to find 'winning metrics' for teams high up the table - Arsenal, for example; one might expect a more obvious skill or facet to the game to emerge from the dataset for a team that finishes third; ditto Newcastle and Chelsea. What this perhaps indicates is the weird up-and-down nature of the season, with teams having slow starts, slumps, collapses etc - and conversely, with Wigan and Everton doing their usual end-of-season thing.

While Villa is the only team I couldn't find anything for, the QPR and Wolves stats are, of course, a half-the-story story, meaning mostly that they were shocking away from / at home respectively. But I am a slave to the numbers.

Anyway, I have failed, so it really doesn't matter. As you were.

Giroud Interview with Sport Bild, per L'Equipe

Original (French) version here - this is not an official translation, meant only to help out non-French speakers. Any errors are my own. But I have tried. Promise.

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Olivier Giroud spoke to Sport Bild on Wednesday, and revealed he was aware of the interest of Bayern München and that he felt ready to deal with competition with Mario Gomez: “I have not personally had discussions with Bayern but my agent has.  We are both the same height and have a similar profile, but there are also differences.  Mario Gomez is very adroit in front of goal, very strong in the area; I can also score from distance. Given the number of competitions that Bayern are in, Gomez and I could rotate."

Giroud also confirmed that he has been advised by Franck Ribéry and that he would like to have his future settled before the Euros: “I have already spoken to Ribéry about the Bundesliga, the fans, the stadia and life in Germany.  I have to say that the Premier League stays a notch above the Bundesliga.  But I have regulaarly followed Bundesliga matches.  I would definitely like to settle my future before Euro 2012.”

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Caveat Statto: The Limitations of the Statistical Approach

Premiership Stats Visuals: See Dynamic Dashboard

Defining Terms

In a dataset for a football match, certain actions are fixed, and others a matter of opinion; however, they are fixed by the referee, which is the first problem.  The whistle is blown for fouls, freekicks, corners and goalkicks are awarded, offside calls made, cards handed out – all these things happen, and are therefore included in the dataset.  They may, however, be wrong.  This has a knock-on effect on the dataset; for example, QPR’s disallowed goal against Bolton in March.  Where is that in the dataset?  It was definitely a shot; it was definitely on target.  However, it was definitely a goal, by usual objective standards – but not according to the referee-defined objectivity of the game.  In recording that action, the observer must not designate it ‘a goal’, as it wasn’t (although it was); that then feeds into the realm of opinion in its recording in the shots statistics.

In that realm, there is further confusion; the recording of shots and shots on target is ostensibly a record of fact, but that is not necessarily the case.  When Emile Heskey’s attempt against Manchester United sheared off for a throw-in, is that recorded as a shot? He clearly meant to shoot, but if the ball ends up way over there, it can cause confusion – would any forward (or sideways) pass in the attacking third then be a shot?  No, but only because they are not intended as such. Then we are reduced to considering the motives of players in performing particular actions, which is frowned upon in other circumstances, such as when considering whether or not player A is or is not that kind of player, or when in ‘but did he mean it?’ situations (eg Olivier Giroud – 25 secs in, Papiss Demba Cissé, Tim Howard) where it really doesn’t matter if he did or didn’t, it went in, and thus the result defines the previous action.

A further example of this difficulty is shown in the different records that may exist for the same match; in the Manchester Derby, there was much talk of Manchester United not mustering a shot on target – according to the dataset used in my analysis, they managed 4 shots, 2 of which were on target, and thus did not ‘do a Blackburn’ (where no shots are recorded in their match v Tottenham).  In this realm, therefore, there will also be variances between different datasets.

Between these two positions are other actions that definitely happen, but without the sanction of the referee; passes completed, tackles won, etc.  These simply need to be seen and recorded by the observer and included in the dataset.  This inclusion is however factual rather than entailing any particular judgment, which is connected to our second problem.

Which Metrics? Quantifying Quality

No single metric can define a match; it is of course getting the goal in the back of the net that counts, but with the other team attempting to do that too (unless they are Blackburn playing Tottenham), even goals scored is not sufficient.  ‘Points’ is the final definer of a result, of course, but is in itself a result of a combination of actions rather than an action in itself.

Some metrics, such as possession, pass completion rate, and assists are simultaneously lauded and derided as measures of quality.  The first two in particular are used to demonstrate the dominance of a team, which mostly works as the highest performers in these areas tend to be Barcelona; however there is no causation here (see next section).  When Swansea played Newcastle in April, they had 77% possession, and completed 835 passes to Newcastle’s 181. They also lost 2-0. Thus, high possession and pass completion rates are useful in terms of potential, but that potential still has to be realised.

The assist is a tricky beast – and here, the French refer to a ‘decisive pass’, which seems more useful , as otherwise Hazard’s rabona against PSG would probably not count as ‘an assist’ as it bounced off De Melo first, before Roux got to finish – as an assist could be a beautiful piece of individual skill to set up a tap-in, or just the last mug to touch the ball before the striker did all the work.  The same can be said of goals, of course, but as they are used primarily as a team-metric, and to define individual performance only as a subsidiary, this is less pronounced.

As statistical analysis becomes more prevalent in the footballing discourse, there is occasionally the feeling that analysts are searching for more esoteric metrics to distinguish them from the ball in the back of the net crowd.  This can make life difficult.  An example – shooting accuracy might be considered a good reflector of quality, but if we look at that metric alone (% of shots that are on target) a slight drawback emerges (Fig 1).   

Fig. 1 - Best Shooting Accuracy by Team

Alternatively, when Arsenal were shipping goals all over the place early on in the season, there was still an insistence that Wojciech Szczesny is a fine goalkeeper (and that David de Gea might not be).  Looking at the rankings for save rate over the season (% of shots on target against that do not result in a goal) is similarly surprising from that perspective (Fig. 2 - and Manchester United are at the top of this chart). 

Fig. 2 - Worst Save Rates by Team

If no single metric can stand alone in match analysis, a combination of metrics may be more useful.  However, none can define success.

Cause and Effect – Prophesying the Past

Win more corners and you’ll win more games, as, hopefully, the saying doesn’t go (Fig.3).  Statistical analysis can assume causality from a metric that is actually an effect (attack more, and a team is more likely to win corners – they are also more likely to win; both are results of attacking more, but also then used to define the level of attack, circular reference warning ahoy).  Analysis can be dependent on results, and the interpretation of the metrics in the dataset behind that result can therefore change to fit the narrative, eg, Barcelona won because they had more possession, Barcelona lost because they didn’t capitalise on their possession.   The second statement (guess which match) is more accurate, and also gives the lie to the causality assumed in the first.

Fig. 3 - Most Corners Won by Team by Match

It’s the ball in the back of the net that counts, basically. Preferably the other team’s net.

Conclusions

Statistical analysis can be a useful addition to match reporting, but to me is more important in perceiving trends over a season rather than explaining a particular result, still less forecasting a game to come.  There are dangers at each end of the scale – over-reliance on particular metrics and an assumption of causality can lead to inconsistency as conclusions differ between matches; trying to take everything into account can render analysis so un-incisive that it is useless (or ends up being a simple statement of shit we already knew – you have to take your chances; or, Manchester City shoot quite a lot, Stoke don’t - Fig. 4).

Fig. 4 - Highest / Lowest Shots by Team

There is also the tension between objective and subjective in assessing the quality of a game – castigating Chelsea for playing ‘anti-football’ when they just beat arguably the best (subj) team in the world, by doing what had to be done, or lauding Swansea for playing beautiful football when they got beaten by Newcastle’s more direct approach, are two sides of the same coin.  A complex combination of metrics may approach expressing quality of play, but there is still no number that can adequately describe Cissé’s goal against Chelsea or Ben Arfa’s runs through confused defences.  The beauty of the beautiful game is difficult to convey other than by the use of the word woof.

There is also luck, of both flavours, and numerous hypotheticals around that – if Suarez hadn’t been bullied by a tree as a child leading him to take revenge on woodwork wherever he see it, if Harry Redknapp wasn’t using a dartboard to determine where Bale is going to play, if Arsenal had had a functioning set of defenders throughout the season, well then, things would have been different.  But luck is a matter of chance.  And then there’s the refereeing – if there was goal-line technology...

Finally, connected to the causality issue above, there is the danger of assuming X therefore Y or relying on preconceptions – under-estimating the other team, setting up not to lose and then going a goal down, being happy in possession but failing to take chances.  At the end of the day, it’s the ball in the back of the net that counts – you still have to play better than the other team.

My name is PhilippaB, and I am a functioning statoholic.  But I am striving to be self-aware.

The Sin of Pride

On 25th April 2012, 4Thought showed a piece on "mental illness from a faith perspective" from Malcolm Bowden. I did not see the piece but am grateful to eChurch Blog for providing a transcript (and initial thoughts). I am sure many people will be challenging Mr Bowden's specific views on mental illness, far better than I can; I would however like to chip in a bit on the issue of the sin of pride, which he seems to consider the primary cause of such problems.

The sin of pride is considered the oldest sin, see Gen 3:5, when Adam and Eve ate the apple, recognised their nakedness, felt shame, hid, etc. Ironically this also seemed to lead to them conceiving children, thus starting the human race, so it is difficult to work out how life was supposed to go without 'the fall'.  

Pride turns up elsewhere (Prov 6:17, where "a proud look" is one of seven 'abominations' listed) and is one of the seven 'deadly' sins (different from the seven abominations, which include several variants on lying, amongst other things).  The countering cardinal virtue is humility.

With the greatest respect, Mr Bowden seems quite proud himself. This is the natural tension of the hardline evangelical movement, perhaps; submit humbly to God, order other people around.  

It is seen in the demonstrations of anti-abortion campaigners, those opposed to equal rights for gay people, opponents of female ordination, and doorstep evangelists in general.  What is believing yourself to be 'saved' when your neighbour is damned, but pride? Whenever the JWs turn up at my front door, urging me to 'open myself to new possibilities', I am very tempted to say 'OK then - you first'.

Mr Bowden thinks people with depression should be less proud.  Maybe it would be more humble to accept centuries of scientific knowledge relating to evolution and heliocentricity than insist that they are wrong 'just because'.  Arguably young-earth creationism and geocentricity are by their nature full of pride - mankind as the most important thing in the universe, both in terms of place, and how we got here.

Mr Bowden thinks "a Christian, a TRUE Christian, should not ever be depressed", which again shows pride; who is he to decide who is a 'TRUE' (watch those caps, worrying sign) Christian? That is usually for the person in question to decide - or, for the theistically-minded reader, for God.  In that Genesis story, God warned Adam and Even against eating the fruit, or "ye shall be as gods, knowing good and evil" - claiming to know the will of God, and brooking no argument, is a difficult position to reconcile with 'humility'.

"I'm right, you're wrong, ner-ner-ne-ner-nerrrr" is a fairly common debating approach in any field, and each specific issue debated will of course have its own characteristics, but the common characteristic of the dogmatic approach is, well, pride, and Mr Bowden is just one of very many demonstrating that.

As am I by writing this, of course, but then I'm not depressed at the moment.  Were I depressed, I would not be by any means 'proud' - I would not have the self-confidence to put this argument forward, I probably would not have the energy to write it up.  

I'm not particularly proud of the paintings used in this post, but they may demonstrate something useful; as the eChurch blog observes "shame, not pride, is the currency of mental illness", and that's what I felt when depressed. A desperate, clawing need to hide myself; I was not trying to be perfect to impress people, I was terrified of letting them down; I was a failure, unworthy.  That's how I felt when I painted these.

I now think they are awful. Go me. 8-)

Classic TV Detective XI

Sloan

Holmes – Banacek – Mason – Petrocelli

Quincy – Columbo

Marple – Morse – Fletcher

Barnaby

GK: Mark Sloan
A tall, athletic and mobile performer, although prone to the occasional embarrassing gaff in his early career (particularly his accent in Mary Poppins). His dancing on the line to put off penalty takers has been criticised, but is undoubtedly effective.

RB: Sherlock Holmes
A cerebral, impulsive player, prone to go missing in big games, and who failed a number of drugs tests during his career, but a massively influential figure who cannot be left off the list.

CB: Banacek (c)
Showed real leadership qualities in his previous team, ‘A’, although looked a little out of his depth in the more challenging formation at Tiffany’s Breakfast (where, to be fair, he was partnered by a cat). A muscular presence.

CB: Perry Mason
The pivot of the defence, although later in his career reliant on team-mates to do some of the work, he was also influential in the opposition box, where he could really make a difference.

LB: Petrocelli
A superb defender, who gave up a top-flight career to play for San Remo United, where he was under-rated but impressive, bamboozling opponents with ease and skill.

DM: Quincy
A solid battler, also interested in the science of the beautiful game. Often in open confrontation with the authorities.

DM: Columbo
Tenacious, to the point of being annoying, he later was accused of ‘playing himself’ at Himmel Berlin, but is fondly remembered for his dominance of the game in the 1970s.

RW: Marple
To be clear, we are talking about the original Brazilian Marple here (or ‘Fat Marple’, as she is sometimes unkindly known), real name Margaret Rutherford, who put in some classic performances throughout the years. Marpleinho (Joan Hicks) later astonished with her skill, leading some to consider her the better player, but for students of the game, the original is best. The later Marple (also known as JM7) is also a popular player, but her plots are often wide of the mark and her game arguably involves much unnecessary embellishment (lesbian affairs, etc).

CM: Morse
One of the old-school, perhaps too fond of a drink for the modern game, he would puzzle out defences and always endeavoured to find the goal. Replaced at Oxford by Lewis, on the bench today, who, while solid, did not quite have the character of his predecessor.

LW: Jessica Fletcher
Fletcher’s career has been varied, most lately demonstrating with Murder She Wrote that she was not afraid to take risks, but even at an early stage for Dagenham & Broomsticks showing a good turn of pace, and with Manchurian United, disconcerting movement.

CF: Inspector Barnaby
The striker, who started his career with Bergerac (an amateur team currently in the fourth tier of the French league) but later moved to Midsomer Wanderers where he found great success. An unfortunate race row notwithstanding, he has a great conversion rate.

Manager: Poirot
The former Belgian international takes a very technical approach, preferring analysis to coaching, which he leaves to his assistant, Hastings.

Subs: Jonathan Hart , Jennifer Hart (bit of a passenger), Watson, Nestor Burma (the Frenchman has really struggled to make an impact outside his domestic league), Lewis.

Ballboy: Hathaway.

Some thoughts before OM v MHSC

Montpellier v Sochaux, 7 April 2012.

Montpellier are currently top of the table on goal difference, equal with PSG on 63 pts, but with a game in hand. That game will be played today at 5pm BST / 6pm CEST, against Marseille at the Velodrome.

OM have not been having a good time of things recently, with no league wins in two months, and going out of the CdF and the Champions League. Their performance against PSG at the weekend, although they lost, looked a bit more lively, but with the CdlL final coming up this Saturday, they may be focussed on that.

Montpellier are performing very well, but one slight concern for this match is the difference in form home and away; at Mosson they are imperious (14W, 1D, 1L v 5W, 5D, 4L away) but away their only win against top half opposition was at Lille back in August. OM are still in the top half, despite the worst run since 1962 (merci, L'Equipe) but they have to pull themselves together at some point - and there were bright indicators for them on Sunday.

So, a few notes from recent matches - Montpellier have a great deal of skill and power at their disposal, but perhaps not much speed. Bedimo can storm out of defence, Utaka can power his way up the left wing, but the efficiency of Belhanda, and similarly Cabella when deployed in a central role, is more jinky and sneaky than breaking at speed. At home to Sochaux at the weekend, Camara on the right pounced on a rebound to score the winning goal, but otherwise was a fairly quiet presence.

This relative lack of speed could be key - against Bayern, OM struggled massively with the runs of Ribery on the left and Lahm and Muller on the right; however, they also left Kroos with far too much space in the middle - leave Belhanda free in a similar way and he will be very dangerous. If Bedimo can do on the left what Jallet did on the right on Sunday, that would be helpful, but Montpellier can be a bit predictable at times - up the wing, cross, Giroud. Not a bad plan to have, but putting more through the middle could be useful - Nkoulou was solid for OM on Sunday, but his colleague in central defence Mbia seemed more concerned with attacking than defending, and could leaves gaps to be exploited.

A note of concern for MHSC, given their still interesting disciplinary record - Valbuena is a battling bulldog type, and how they deal with him will be key. Against Bayern, Alaba had him covered in a very matter-of-fact way (assisted by a two-goal cushion which meant they were often double-marking him) which led to him being dispossessed several times - and the referee was having none of it as he repeatedly hit the deck. Against PSG, he charged around and won several freekicks (although got booked himself early on, which perhaps reined him in a bit). How Montpellier's backline handle him could be a key issue - their propensity for rash challenges and getting sent off would point that up as an area of concern.

On Saturday, Montpellier looked a little tight - they largely bossed the game against Sochaux, particularly in the second half, but didn't capitalise on the chances they made (17 shots, 11 on target, 2 goals) and with Modibo Maiga pulling off a beautiful goal for the visitors, it was very tense at the end. They held on for the win, but cannot afford to be so profligate against Marseille, who are a much greater threat, although their accuracy is also lacking (16 shots v PSG, only 3 on target).

This is a key game for the Ligue 1 standings, and likely to be very tight; the OM ultras are urging their team to lose to damage PSG's title chances, Remy and Azpi are out (Andre Ayew also doubtful) through injury, and there is some internal strife at the club, but Marseille can never be written off, and Montpellier can be worryingly inconsistent away from home.

Damnit, now I've made myself even more nervous...

MHSC Squad:

Jourdren, Pionnier - Bocaly, Yanga-Mbiwa, Hilton, Bedimo, El Kaoutari, Stambouli, Deplagne, Jeunechamp - Belhanda, Lacombe, Estrada, Pitau, Cabella, Aït-Fana, Lacombe, Saïhi - Giroud, Camara, Utaka

Coupe de France Quarter Finals

Quevilly 3 - 2 Marseille

The 16th placed team in the third tier handed OM their 7th straight defeat; it was not a weak Marseille side selection-wise, I thought the amateurs (literally) would flag in extra time but they got the winner in the last minute after keeper Bracigliano dropped a clanger. Bracigliano will be the keeper against Bayern btw, as Mandanda is suspended. DiDi had a go at the ref, the OM president had a go at DiDi, OM could be back to the 'meltdown' setting on their season.
Suggested headline: Norman Conquest

GFCO Ajaccio 1 - 0 Montpellier

Gah. This was a weaker Montpellier team sent to Corsica to battle third-tier opposition (although Gazelec are currently 2nd and look likely to come up) which is probably understandable given the thinness of the squad and the importance of the league, but it was a risk that didn't come off. A bad-tempered match, with Gazelec pouncing better on their chances.
Suggested headline: En Corse for the Semi-Finals

Valenciennes 1 - 3 Rennes

It was 1-1 at half-time, but Kadir (VFC) was sent off on 42mins for attempting to break M'Vila's leg (he's OK), and they just couldn't put anything together after that. Pretty comfortable for Rennes.
Suggested headline: Je ne regrette Rennes

PSG 1 - 3 Lyon

Nene opened the scoring after a harshly given penalty (Umtiti handball, but there was very little he could have done about it), Lyon equalised with a superb freekick from Kallstrom, and then went ahead from Lisandro (who later missed an absolute sitter); 1-2 Lyon at halftime, and the story of the second half was 'Olympique Lloris' as PSG piled on the pressure and the shots. PSG have been getting key goals at the last minute a lot recently, and looked likely to do it again (which would have made Remi Garde's defensive stockpiling substitution approach problematic in extra time), but it was Lyon who got one at the death, another penalty after Jallet clattered Michel Bastos. If Lloris plays like that for France...
Suggested headline: Lloris the Lyon-Heart

Semi-final fixtures (10 April, 19.30 GMT ):
Quevilly v Rennes
GFCO Ajaccio v Lyon