European Championships 2013 – the unfashionable uneven years #2

Part two in the series - ladies first, natch.

Under-21 European Championships – Israel 2013

The second qualifying tournament coming to a close in October (12^th and 16^th) involves slightly more risk than the three berths yet to be decided for the Women’s Euro in Sweden – everybody has to play-off.  After a qualifying group round that kicked off in March 2011, and could mean that some players at the finals are pushing 30, ten group winners and four best runners-up are thrown into an all-or-nothing two-legged play-off to determine who will join hosts Israel in the finals.

Having ten qualifying groups but only two groups at the tournament seems a little odd, but given what’s going on with the CAN qualifying at the minute, perhaps this isn’t so bad.  The seedings for the playoffs are more arguable, as these are based on coefficients generated from performances getting to and at the 2009 and 2011 tournaments, as well as the currently qualifying campaign, which given the age-limit on the competition, may not be massively representative.

However – the seeded teams were the seven group winners with the highest coefficients: Spain, Czech Republic, England, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and France. Unseeded – the other group winners Sweden, Russia and Serbia and the best runners-up Switzerland, Denmark, Slovakia and Norway.  There is of course one anomaly in that unseeded Switzerland at 34.034 are ranked higher than France and Italy in the seeded pot, but it wouldn’t be a coefficient system without something peculiarhappening.

Overall the group stage featured fewer ridiculous results than the women’s qualifying; there are minnows, of course, but of a more traditional sort – San Marino, Andorra, the Faroe Islands, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg. More surprising wooden spoons went to Iceland (3 pts), Latvia (2) and Estonia (1), but overall things were pretty recognisable and nobody got to double figures, the biggest hammerings being a couple of 8-0s (Czech Republic v Andorra, and Germany over San Marino) and the funnest-looking match an epic Denmark 6 – 5 FYROM.  How hosts Israel will fit into this is unclear – as the U21 coefficients are only calculated for the playoff contenders, they don’t have a specific ranking, but the senior team is 75^th in the current overall FIFA rankings, so…

For the home nations, Wales were shaded into 4^th in Group 3 by Montenegro in not a very tricky group, Northern Ireland tanked a bit in Group 4, only one point above the Faroe Islands in last place, and Scotland were runners-up to the Netherlands in Group 10 but didn’t make the cut.  The Republic of Ireland put a decent shift in, coming third after Italy and Turkey, and above Hungary.  England, described rather dourly as “perennial qualifiers“ on the official website, won Group 8 finishing ahead of Norway (also through), Belgium, Azerbaijan and the aforementioned Iceland.

The play-off draw threw up some tasty-looking ties:

• Spain (holders) v Denmark
• Italy v Sweden *
• Czech Republic v Russia *
• Slovakia v Netherlands
• Germany v Switzerland
• England v Serbia *
• France v Norway

*ties involving two group winners

England’s matches against Serbia should be tight affairs, as both have a good record in the competition.  Germany v Switzerland should also be a good match, their rankings almost the same; Germany only dropped two points in the group stage (a 4-4 draw with Bosnia Herzogovina in the last match, when they presumably had a bit of a rest), but Switzerland were in a group with defending champions Spain, losing to them 3-0 then drawing 0-0 in the home game – although they also drew 0-0 with Estonia in their opening match (the Estonian's only point…). 

The play-off approach for everybody means there is still an air of uncertainty over the tournament, with several matches too close to call.  My undoubtedly unsuccessful accumulator would be: Spain, Italy, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Switzerland, Serbia (probably on penalties) and France.  The finals will be held in Israel from 5-18 June 2013.

For a good round-up of the French team’s qualification and chances, see this article from Coffee House Football: http://lepetitcarremagique.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/les-bleus-bright-young-stars/

European Championships 2013 – The Unfashionable Uneven Years #1

While the world looks on avidly as the qualification process for Brazil 2014 (now featuring endangered armadillo) gets under way, some other qualifying campaigns are drawing to a close.  Next summer will see the Women's Euros in Sweden and the U21 Euros in Israel, both of which are at the play-off stage.

Women’s European Championships – Sweden 2013

Already Qualified:

• Sweden (hosts) – FIFA Ranking 6 – winners in 1984
• Italy (group winners) – 10 – only team to have appeared at all 10 Championships
• Germany (g.w.) – 2 – current holders, have won last 5 tournaments, 7 in total (1 as W Germany)
• Norway (g.w.) – 13 – winners in 1983 and 1987, secured qualification in last game v Iceland
• France (g.w.) – 5 – only team with a perfect record in qualifying
• Finland (g.w.) – 18
• England (g.w.) – 8 – secured qualification in last game by beating Croatia
• Denmark (g.w.) – 12 – secured qualification in last game by beating Portugal
• Netherlands (best runners-up) – 14

Play-offs (October 20/21 and 24/25):

Scotland (22) v Spain (17)
Scotland are looking for a first finals appearance, but they laboured a bit in what was not a very tough group, and have a toughish draw to proceed after being beaten 5-0 by France in their last qualifying game, and barely managing a shot.  Spain have only appeared once before, in 1997 (losing in the semi-final to Italy), but they were in Germany’s group for qualifying, and were the only team to take points off them, in a 2-2 draw at home (lost return leg 5-0).  
Predict Spain to qualify.

Ukraine (23) v Iceland (16)
Iceland were topping their group until the final match, a decider with Norway, which they lost 2-1.  Ukraine went into their final match v Finland 6pts behind, but managed a 1-0 win away.  Both were in reasonably competitive groups (i.e. at least 3 decent teams and only one hopeless case), and look fairly evenly matched. 
Predict Iceland to qualify, but it could be tight.

Austria (35) v Russia (20)
Russia have three previous appearances, in 1997, 2001, 2009 but didn’t make the knock-out stages. They were in a group with Italy, Poland, Bosnia Herzogovina and Greece, which kept things reasonably tight, FYROM providing the traditional cannon fodder element.  Austria have never qualified before and are the lowest ranked team still in this, but gave Denmark a scare with a 3-1 win in their last match – Denmark dropped to second but had a game in hand, and went back top after beating Portugal 2-0.
Predict Russia to qualify.

The perennial problem – the level of comedy shoeings: http://www.uefa.com/womenseuro/matches/index.html http://www.uefa.com/womenseuro/standings/index.html

Seven matches saw one team hit double figures, the highest tally being Germany 17 – 0 Kazakhstan (in second place, Spain 13 – 0 Kazakhstan). (Poor Kazakhstan). Honourable mention also to Italy for beating FYROM 9-0 in both legs, which shows a pleasing symmetry, although possibly not if you're on the receiving end.  

The goal difference figures in the standings tables give you an idea of the gulf in class between the best teams and the rest, and one has to wonder whether it does either group any good to see those kind of scores so frequently; the best teams are rarely tested outside actual tournaments, so face few loseable games, while the newcomers spend most of their time picking the ball out of the net and have few winnable opportunities. The Euros do feature a preliminary stage, in which the scorelines looked much more reasonable (OK, Luxembourg shipped some, but also beat Latvia) and which put Armenia and FYROM through to the main qualifying competition; it might be an idea to expand that next time as Kazakhstan, Turkey and Bulgaria all went straight in - and all were on the end of two double-figure routs.

The resulting three-group format of the finals leads to a slight ‘all must have prizes’ aspect to qualification for the knock-out rounds, as the winners and runners-up of each are joined by the two best 3rd-placed teams.  Expanding to 16 teams would seem sensible to make the group stages more interesting - as above, the real minnows are not going to get through, and the highest-ranked non-qualifiers Switzerland, Belgium, Poland and Republic of Ireland, and of course the losing playoff-teams, are all decent enough.  

While Sweden have qualified as hosts so haven’t had to go through qualifying, they have three key points on their side – home advantage, having players in the top leagues in Europe getting CL experience, and appointing Pia Sundhage as their new coach.  Only Germany and France are above them in the rankings, and while the defending champions will be the favourites, probably by some distance, Sweden could well get to the final.

The tournament will take place from 10 July, the final scheduled for Sunday 28 July at the Solna Arena.

Friendly Rivalries and Footballing Reasons

After the Euros, and at a time when L'Equipe is running breaking news items on the number of Ligue 1 teams' Academy players to have passed their Bac, it can feel like there is a lack of football.

Ptooey.

There is an actual tournament going on right now, the U19 European Championships, where today's semi-finals will see England meet Greece (15.45 CET) and Spain meet France (19.00 CET) - and the Olympics are coming (more on that later, please try to avoid bringing a bag); but there's an absolute riot of meaningless lopsided match-ups going on as teams try to run off the holiday weight, integrate new players, in some cases new managers, and make everyone feel better about themselves before the serious stuff kicks off in August.

Yesterday, in a pre-season friendly, PSG beat Austrian third division side Sportverein Stegersbach 9-0, in one of those matches that tips over from being sport to outright bullying.  Austria is currently playing host to several football teams fond of airmiles and Sachertorte, with Manchester City and Lyon also in place, having people over to stay such as CSKA Moscow, Al-Hilal, Dynamo Dresden, Beskitas etc.

The general approach for French teams seems to be like a lot of people's holiday plans for a year - one 'proper' trip away (probably to Austria), a couple of weekend breaks, and some days out in the local vicinity.  On the day-trip front, there's a Corsican mini-league featuring AC Ajaccio, Bastia, Calvi and Gazelec before Bastia nip home to put the kettle on in case Liverpool do actually show up on 4 August (nothing on their website); MHSC are also saving up the travel budget with short jaunts out to Mende, Avignon and Nice before the big trip to the US, where they will prepare for the Trophee de Champions by playing Kansas City Sport (24 July) while Lyon will be seeking to have an impact on Montreal.


However, as with the difference between tourists and travellers, the hardcore pre-season tour now has to include at least three continents, with China and the US preferred destinations purely for footballing reasons.  Manchester United are hitting South Africa, China and Scandinavia; Arsenal are throwing in Malaysia (where they will play MCFC) and Hong Kong; and PSG are popping over to America, presumably miffed not to be part of the Trophee de Champions match between MHSC and OL, which this year will continue the tradition of being played in a Francophone country by taking place at New York's Red Bull Arena.  Liverpool, Spurs, Villa and Stoke are all heading over the US as well.

Pre-season friendlies can be a double-edged sword - the footballing reasons behind the multi-continent tour are clear but there's a decent chance the whole team will be suffering from jetlag and earache after all that flying around and won't know where the hell they are from one day to the next; also, while beating anyone 9-0 must be a nice feeling, that result will (rightly) be seen as meaningless, as the top team is expected to be, well, top - but an unexpected loss to the minnow of choice can be taken more seriously.  OK, Guingamp and Istres are in Ligue 2, they're not mugs, but those 0-1 losses are still a bit embarrassing for Evian and Toulouse respectively.  This could explain why the first friendly is usually a gimme - Stegersbach, for example, or Arsenal kicking things off with a gentle 45 minutes against Southampton - if you are the first team on the calendar for one of the big boys, you're considered to be cannon fodder. 

But there are some intriguing match-ups in there - some in the far-flung footballing reasons part of the tour, such as the aforementioned Manchester City v Arsenal (China) and Chelsea v PSG (New York), but also in the European City Break category; Benfica are taking on both Lille and Marseille, Lyon play Athletic Bilbao, MHSC go to Espanyol Barcelona, while Stripey Barcelona will take on PSG and Manchester United.  There's maybe some 'U and Non-U' going on here - purely for footballing reasons, of course.  


Yesterday also saw Les Bleues beating Russia 3-0 in a pre-'lympics friendly; a slightly more testing occasion than their previous match against Romania (6-0), as Russia did actually manage a couple of shots on goal. National team friendlies can suffer from the same problems as club ones - flying around all over the place (Spain), meaningless hammerings (see below), worrying defeats (Switzerland v Germany), visiting South Americans getting used to the weather before the 'lympics (Denmark v Brazil, Russia v Uruguay), and footballing reasons (Spain again, playing South Korea and China).  There is also the added issue that such matches are factored into the totally logical FIFA Rankings, which currently have England in 4th and Brazil in 11th. 


Pre-Euros, the same unqualified names turned up time and again to act as pacemaker for the teams heading for Polkraine, such as Estonia, beaten in turn by Croatia (3-1), Ukraine (4-0) and France (4-0).  Estonia, of course, only lost out on a place at the Euros by losing a play-off to the Republic of Ireland, so the tournament collectively dodged a bullet there.  Also, we learned something very important from England's two 1-0 wins against Norway and Belgium, namely that Cahill can't play football with a broken jaw.


But when there is nothing else on, we will watch - and in France, as Canal+ scrabbles around in vain for some football to show before being Ligue-less next season, and Direct 8 continues its cheerful support of the women's game, we can watch - and have that conversation again...


England: We beat Spain!
Spain: It was a friendly.
England: But...we beat Spain!
Spain: It was a friendly. We don't care.
England: But...we beat Spain!
Spain: Kiss our silverware, losers.

PSG - A Tale of Two Selections

Lavezzi in, Ceara out, Chantome going, Sakho sulking; PSG's mercato can only get more interesting.  Having looked at Montpellier's preferred starters for 2011/12 with a view to assessing their situation for next season, doing the same analysis for PSG was a bit more complicated.  The managerial change during the winter break gives a clear cut-off at the halfway point of 2011/12, in terms of selection and formation.

Data comes from L'Equipe's teamsheets and formation graphics, so may not be 100%, but you get the idea.

Kombouaré set his team up in a 4-2-3-1 (barring a 4-4-2 in the opening game, Hoarau's only start in 2011), his preferred starters shown in the graphic:

In defence, Ceara got 15 starts, also covering at LB, Camara 12, Sakho 10, Tiene 11, with alternatives provided by Bisevac and Jallet (8 - Jallet also appearing on the RW), Lugano and Armand (6).


In midfield, Matuidi had 12 starts, Bodmer 12 (mostly in a holding role but initially in the attacking three) and Sissoko 9.  The front four was very consistent over the games Kombouaré was in charge - Nene 18, Menez 17, Pastore 16, and Kevin Gameiro was the only outfield player to start all 19 games.


Then came winter, and Ancelotti - there's a Christmas tree joke in here but I'm damned if I can find it - his preferred formation a 4-3-3, and starters per the graphic:

 It was the back four that changed the most - of Kombouaré's preferred starters, only Sakho held on, with 10 starts (and is muttering darkly about doing one if another central defender arrives, a view with which we may have some sympathy if the rumours are true and that CB is EBJT) - Jallet was promoted to first choice RB (with another two starts on the right wing), and January signings Alex Costa (15) and Maxwell (13) were immediately installed as fixtures. Bisevac stayed fairly level with 9 starts, but Camara was downgraded to 5 and Ceara to 2; his contract has now been terminated.


Another new boy strode confidently into midfield, Thiago Motta getting 14 starts, but the change in formation meant less disruption here, Matuidi and Sissoko both holding steady with 13, and Bodmer managing 9 as cover.  Clément Chantôme, who had got 7 starts at the start of the season under Kombouaré, started only once under the new boss, and now looks to be on his way to Lyon.


In attack, the usual suspects Nene (17), Menez (16) and Pastore (14) were regulars, with rotation employed if Ancelotti actually picked a striker - the big difference was that this was not, as before, always Gameiro; he got only 8 starts in 2012, Guillaume Hoarau (who I was surprised to find is 28) got 6, and was the preferred sub option (10 as opposed to Gameiro's 6) when Ancelotti changed things up.


Ancelotti has hinted (warning - includes auto-start video) that Gameiro will have more joy next season but the poor guy looks a bit crumpled - as well as causing frustration week-to-week, Ancelotti's formation change probably killed his chances of going to the Euros; 9 goals in 2011 (he was competing with Giroud to be top scorer) collapsed to 2 in 2012.


The purchase of Lavezzi is interesting - it could mean that Ancelotti wants to be able to rotate more with the CL to play, but what effects this will have are unclear; it could dislodge Nene, or push him into the centre if the strikerless 4-3-3 is retained; or Menez could suffer, with his manager recently stepping away from the FFF disciplinary panel issue and also saying, rather exasperatedly, that he'd rather Jeremy didn't pick up "12-13" cards a season for arguing with referees. That number was not picked out of the air - his Ligue record was in fact 12. Cover seems the most likely explanation if PSG are to make a better job of competing in Europe than they did last season, but the window well open and the frique there to be spent, this will not be the end of the story for PSG.


Click here for a visualisation of the selections throughout last season (another visual that works as well as a pillowcase cover design as for information purposes).  


Note: the formation creator used above is http://www.footballuser.com/ and also allows for the creation of fantasy teams; Death Metal Rovers? Check. Coalition Cabinet DisUnited? Check - if you can name more than four of them.  Have fun.

Whither Montpellier?

The transfer window is swinging gently in the breeze, Giroud has relocated to the Francophone enclave that is Arsenal FC, LouLou has come over all sensible (for now) about the target for next season, and René  Girard is seeking to apply the rumoured €15m received for Ligue 1's best striker last year in doubling up in a couple of areas to prepare for fighting on several fronts in 2012/13 including, alleluia, the Champions League.

So far, MHSC have added winger Anthony Mounier (€3.5m) from Nice, striker Gaetan Charbonnier (€1.5m) from Angers, and defender Daniel Congré  (tbc) from Toulouse.  Several loanees are back, the most likely of which to feature next season should be Bengali Fode Koita (4 sub appearances before going to Lens in January), and there are rumours that striker Emmanuel Herrera will be coming in from Union Espanola in Chile.

Having trawled through the full list of L'Equipe's team formations by match, the usual starting team (number of starts in brackets) for MHSC in 2011/12 was:

With apologies for playing the RB so far forward, but I couldn't fit them in on a single line. And the holding mids might be the wrong way around a bit. Anyway.

The key position to cover will of course be the CF - Camara and Utaka stood in once apiece when Olive was on the naughty step, but both have their own preferred positions, and with Dernis having moved on to Brest, Camara's claim on the right would presumably solidify.  Charbonnier claimed on signing that he would be happy to be a back-up striker, but that was before the Giroud deal was closed; if Herrera comes in, and/or Victor Hugo Montaño comes back (another rumour), that would look like a shared position. The purchase of Mounier, a left-winger, might suggest that Utaka could move to the CF position but it seems more likely that they will cover the left between them; a further covering option for either side would be Karim Ait-Fana (5 starts left, 2 right, 5 subs at both), and Montpellier's very own Lolcat Remy Cabella can slot in as well (5 starts right, 13 subs across the park).

In central midfield, Belhanda is the obvious first choice but Cabella has covered there in CAN / ban situations.  Girard has also, where necessary, moved to a 4-3-3 playing all three of his most-used holders (Estrada, Saihi, Marveaux) as the middle three.  Stambouli's versatility comes in useful here, starting and subbing on both as holding mid and centre back, and Romain Pitau (35, having agreed a one-year extension) is available also.

At the back, the go-to four are Bedimo, Hilton, Yanga-Mbiwa and Bocaly; Hilton moving across to cover for his captain, Stambouli / El-Kaoutari slotting in for him, and Cyril Jeunechamp covering both full-back positions as necessary.  The purchase of Congré gave rise to concerns that Mapou might be off to pastures new - nothing is confirmed as yet, but rumour has it he has signed an extension on his contract (otherwise due to end next year): if he stays, this would allow for more rotation in multiple competitions; if he goes, Congré is a good replacement, and can also play at right-back.  If Bedimo goes, as is also rumoured, despite only signing last summer, that could be a bigger problem - Jeunechamp has extended his contract for another season but he's not getting any younger (36), so having an alternative at LB would appear necessary anyway. 


LouLou recently set out his suspiciously reasonable targets for 2012/13 - top five or six in the league, 'pourquoi pas une petite coupe', finishing third in the CL group and going into the Europa League.  Given some of his previous pronouncements, this restraint is a little surprising, but having actually gone and bloody won the title, MHSC are no longer the annoying kid kicking the big boys on the shins and running away; they've got something to defend - and lose - now.


So, while most focus is rightly on replacing Giroud up front, I would also like to see alternative back-up at the left side of defence - if no more preferred starters leave, that would give options in every position and the flexibility of younger players such as Stambouli, Cabella, and Ait-Fana who have not been, until now, majority starters will be very useful.


I will now stand by and watch as the midfield is sold as a package deal to Newcastle, if my predictions history is anything to go by.  When does the window close?

pleese look after this og

So, having repeatedly stressed that his contract with Montpellier runs to 2014, flirted with Bayern Munich, dreamt of the Premier League, it looks like Olivier Giroud is, indeed, about to 'fait un', and that Arsenal is his most likely destination.

[soupir]

Now, my friend Busty assures me that "he will be going to a new home where the children will love him and care for him", but I can't help worrying a bit, so here is a handy owner's guide to assist whichever club ponies up the (rumoured) €12m necessary to acquire Ligue 1's top goalscorer 2011/12.

Plays well with others

Goals may or may not be over-rated, but he scored 21 in the league, equal with Nene but pipping him to the title as only 2 came from penalties, and 4 in the cup.

(On this specific point, he also missed two penalties, which indirectly led to the epic narls-up against Evian in game 35 when he didn't want to take the last-minute spot-kick awarded, leaving Belhanda - who had scored the first - to go slightly off on one when he saw that Souleyman Camara was about to take instead; a fight broke out, Belhanda got sent off and suspended for the rest of the season, Camara missed, MHSC drew. So, no need to change the penalty rota.)

You have probably already seen the round-up of his season (with appropriately plaintive music) but there's more to him than the goals; he also got 11 assists (9 in the league) so do please stay to the end (these start at 3mins 50).  He put the chip in for Belhanda's wonder-strike against OM, made the run and cut-back for Ait-Fana's crucial last-minute winner against Lille on day 37; more recently for France, there were two assists in the friendly against Iceland, a one-two with Ribery and then a cushioned header knock-down for Rami's thunderous winner (something he has specifically worked on for Montpellier), and a backwards toe-poke to set up Menez for the fourth against Estonia.

To note, on that last one - Evra's low cross came in slightly behind him, as he barrelled forwards - a lot of strikers would just have over-run it and then given that rueful 'cheers' gesture in the direction of the left-back; Giroud managed to check his run sufficiently to nudge it back to where Menez was waiting.  This is key - he makes smart decisions.  His one weakness, arguably, is a lack of pace, but he is aware of this and tailors his game accordingly, as with the Ait-Fana goal (5mins in on the video); with the score at 0-0 and Lille desperate to win to stand any chance of winning the league, they had pushed everyone up for a last crack at the Montpellier goal - Giroud spots this, hovers just inside their half, so when the ball comes over, is a couple of yards ahead of the defenders but still onside.

He said afterwards that he knew he 'didn't have the gas' to score himself but that's clearly what Lille were expecting him to try, so they follow him; instead he heads for the goal-line, pulls Chedjou out of position, and cuts the ball back for the much more rapid Ait-Fana who has sprinted the full length of the pitch and has nobody on him.  This honesty was also displayed after his beautiful goal against Nancy (1 min in) - interviewed on the pitch, when asked if he meant it, he started laughing; later, in the dressing room, he described it with a smile as "un centre-lob-tir" (a "cross / lob / shot") and admitted that he hadn't.

So, he may be used to playing as a sole striker, but despite his importance to Montpellier's victory, he is no one-man-band.  Play him upfront with a more mobile support striker off him, say, ooh, RVP (as we are apparently not going to see him and Benzema sharing the pitch in the Euros, boo) and that could be a killer combination - not a case of punting it forward to the big man, but one-twos, chips, cutbacks, and overlapping attackers.

Woof.

Anyway...also important to note:

Good with kids - he is patron of Solid'art, a charity that provides performances and activities for seriously ill children, and involved with ELA (L'Association Europeene contre les Leucodystophies), and local medical charity Karma, raising awareness about defibrillators.  So he should be a solid performer in any oh-shit-a-player's-been-arrested-quick-look-cuddly trips to children's hospitals that are on the club's community outreach / PR schedule.

Affectionate -



He is French. Just bear that in mind.

Well-groomed

Props to him for being the first professional footballer to appear as the cover-boy for Tetu, a gay magazine, saying that he'd be delighted if this helped to change opinions.  You can also see from those photos something else he will bring to the party - ink.

The league-leaders in the Premiership in this respect are probably Liverpool; obviously Walcott is trying his best, but it just looks wrong.  One quasi-ethnic sleeve, check, and one Bible verse (L'Eternel est mon berger - the Lord is my shepherd), check.  Useful for any title challenge.

And he's a clothes-horse, of course.  Perfect man-crush material.  Also likes cigars, good red wine, and cheese.

Likes a long run-out in the park

He played 36 league games this season, all starts, and a total of 3201 minutes, which means he almost always lasts the distance.  One of the games missed was due to suspension - 6 yellow cards, given the noticeably harsher refereeing in Ligue 1 than the Premiership, is not actually that bad.

In conclusion; Chelsea have bagged the best player in Ligue 1 by getting Eden Hazard on board (L'Equipe average ranking 6.06, and L'Equipe are stingy, only EH and much put-open Brest goalkeeper Steeve Elana had 6 or over - Giroud got 5.94).  However, whoever picks Olive up have a reliable, adaptable, quality player at their disposal, and for much less money.

Just please - look after him. La Paillade are going to miss him.

[soupir]

Olympic Preview - the XX XIs

The Euros start today, but in attempt to distract myself from my sad lack of a proper wallchart (cultural differences), am also getting excited about the Olympic football competition, kicking off in July.  I am nothing if not prepared.

The format of the competition is a bit 'all must have prizes' as there are three groups of four, with the top two in each group and best two third-place finishers progressing to the quarter-finals.  Thus, while Team GB have a tough group, they should get through, either in 2nd or 3rd.  The groups (with * predictions for progression):

Group E: Brazil*, Team GB*, Cameroon*, New Zealand
Group F: Japan*, Sweden*, Canada*, South Africa
Group G: USA*, France*, Columbia, North Korea

It's a pity Germany aren't going, but there's some very good teams in there - ten of the twelve were at the 2011 World Cup although four of them got knocked out at the group stage, and Canada didn't get a point, stuck in the toughest group - I might be going out on a bit of a limb predicting them to go through, but they are a solid team who just had a dreadful time at the WWC.  Plus their captain is nails.

Cameroon and South Africa were the exceptions, but both only narrowly lost out on qualification in the 2010 African Women's Cup, which was used as the WWC qualifying tournament, with the two finalists going to Germany; South Africa (hosts) got 6pts from their group losing to Nigeria, the eventual winners, and then Equatorial Guinea in the semi, Cameroon drew with EG in the group and then got slightly pummelled 5-1 by Nigeria in the next round.

Happily there looks to be at least one cracking game in each of the group rounds.  My picks would be:

• Day 1, 25 July at 5pm BST: USA v France 
• Day 2, 28 July at midday BST: Japan v Sweden
• Day 3, 31 July at 7.45pm BST: Team GB v Brazil

It's not clear how the knock-out stage draw will work given the format, but I am assuming it will be a hat-based situation but with nobody playing someone from their own group.

Things to watch out for:

1) Whether France have dealt with the lack of confidence shown at WWC 2011 - they got the most shots per game off of any team there (20), but tended to shoot too early / far out, perhaps fearing that they didn't have the strength to hold off defenders; they have the skill, if they can go another couple of yards before pulling the trigger, they could be a threat.  With a bit of luck, they'll have worked on their defence too...

2) Whether teams have worked out how to play against Japan - they play a patient, possession game (average 56% at the WWC) and so have inevitably been called 'Barcelona-esque', but it was a very different style from the more direct approach of the other teams in 2011 which the traditional big teams found very difficult to deal with, and they ground it out, winning on penalties against the USA, who had a shocker in the shoot-out.

3) Whether Brazil will embrace the Olympic spirit and stop rolling around on the floor feigning injury (who says the women are nothing like the men?) and just play the bloody ball, in which case they can be lethal. Their quarter-final against the USA in Germany was probably the game of the tournament, with retaken penalties, late goals, a last-minute equaliser, and Hope Solo.  I love Hope.

4) Whether Team GB can put in a good performance - they should get out of the group, but then may struggle.  Hope Powell made some bad decisions last year, both on and off the field (criticising her players publicly, making substitutions too early which left England limping and basically down to 9 players in the quarter-final with France), so hopefully that will not re-occur.

A dashboard of the stats from the WWC 2011.  You see what I mean about the French defence.

I reckon the answers are 1) maybe, 2) yes, 3) and 4) probably not, so will be tipping USA! USA! to take the gold medal.

I may also cast an eye at the men's competition to see how Belhanda gets on for Morocco. But obviously that's a side issue. Go ladies.